Fifth Plenary Session of 18^th CCP Central Committee

• Highlights of 13^th 5-year plan: After the closure of the 5^th Plenary Session, the CCP has proposed a number of plans for development in the next 5 years. In general, it pledged to build a well-off society (小康社会), to maintain a medium-high economic growth, to stimulate innovation for economic development, to promote coordinated urban-rural development, to encourage low-carbon development, to continue the opening policy and cooperating with the international community by pushing forward the “One Belt One Road” Initiatives and enlarging regional free-trade zones, to alleviate poverty problem, and reinforce and improve the party’s leadership to deliver the above-mentioned. The CCP summarized its latest 5-year plan with ‘Innovation’ (创新), ‘Coordination’ (协调), ‘Green’ (绿色), ‘Opening up’ (开放), and Benefit-sharing’ (共享). For details, please see Caixin. For a review of 12^th 5-year Plan in figures and graphs, please see China Daily.

Development is still the first priority

• // The 5th Plenum and the proposals for the new Five-Year Plan (2016-20) stated that « development is still the number one priority » and called for maintaining « medium rapid » growth. Since it is officially estimated that doubling the 2010 GDP by 2020 requires a 6.5 percent annual average growth in the next five years, it is likely that the new plan will set a target around 6.5 percent.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

Stimulating innovation in China

• // Innovation will provide new momentum for China’s development from 2016, the Communist Party of China (CPC) said Tuesday. « Development must rest on the basis of innovation, » the CPC said. Driven by innovation with first-mover advantages, allocation of labor, capital, land, technology and management will be focused on stimulating entrepreneurship, so that new technology, industries and business models will prosper, according to proposals by the CPC Central Committee for the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020) for national economic and social development. […] Green technology, biotechnology, information technology, smart manufacturing, high-end equipment and new energy will be generously supported. The Internet Plus action plan will integrate the Internet with traditional sectors of the economy, and China will lead the world in developing the next generation of Internet. Support for research in fundamental sciences will lead to breakthroughs in sectors such as information technology and aerospace science.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

• // The Communist Party of China (CPC) has said that education will cultivate the next generation’s « innovation edge. » The CPC wants to equip students with « social responsibility, an innovative spirit and the ability to put ideas into practice, » and these characteristics will be the basis for educational reform in the next five years, according to proposals on formulating the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020) for national economic and social development unveiled on Tuesday. Higher education will be improved in the next five years, with the CPC pledging to elevate « several universities and subjects to, or close to, top world level. »// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

Green development is written in the 5-year plan for the first time

• // Green development is listed as a key development objective in the 13th Five-Year Plan for the first time. Along this line, the government had earlier already committed to cut 2020 CO2 emission intensity by 40-45 percent from the level in 2005, and the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption is set to increase from 11.4 percent in 2015 to 15 percent in 2020.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

• //China will promote clean industrial production, low-carbon development and energy conservation to ensure sustainable growth in the next five years, said a document issued by the Communist Party of China (CPC) on Tuesday. […] »China will advance the energy revolution, » the document said, through better technology and use of non-fossil fuels. Clean energy including wind power, solar energy, biomass energy, hydropower and geothermal energy will be highlighted. Nuclear power will be developed in a safe and efficient manner. […] Low-carbon public transportation will be boosted by an improved rail transport system along with new energy vehicles and green construction materials. « China will actively control carbon emissions, » the document said, especially in major sectors such as electricity, steel, construction materials and the chemical industry. The country will promote conservation of energy, water and land resources. « China will implement the strictest water resource management.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

Poverty alleviation as a goal before 2020

• //The government plans to eliminate poverty by end 2020, to pull the 70 million people under the current poverty line (annual income below 2,300 yuan at 2010 price, roughly equivalent to international poverty threshold of $1.9 per day at 2011 price PPP) out of poverty by the end of the five year period.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

International cooperation will continue

• // China’s « go global » strategy is set to be prioritized around the « One Belt One Road » and deepening of global integration. The country’s overseas investment is expected to continue growing rapidly in the next 5 years. China also wants to more pro-actively participate in international cooperation and global economic governance.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

Continued fight against corruption

• // The fight against corruption will neither be relaxed nor end in the near future, said a document adopted at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee. […] The document pledged to cement the achievements of the anti-corruption campaign and work out an effective mechanism to stem corruption.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

Improvement in social management system

• //On the social management front, the document called for greater innovation. Efforts should be made to guide the public to exercise their rights and solve disputes according to [the] The document suggested that a national database of basic personal information should be established and the social credibility system improved. The document called for better public security with more done to raise public awareness of safety and safety risks. The national security strategy should be implemented and a national security system established. Efforts should be made to prevent infiltration, subversion and sabotage. Terror, ethnic separatism and religious extremism should be severely dealt with.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

Healthcare system will be reformed

• // In a proposal for the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020), the CPC called for an efficient basic healthcare system in both urban and rural areas and modern management of hospitals. The proposal encourages the private sector to run health services with the same status as public institutions. The Party proposed improved public hospitals, unburdened from the necessity of seeking profit alongside personnel and remuneration systems appropriate to the health industry. Cybermedicine and optimizing distribution of resources will improve basic health services. In a bid to build a harmonious doctor-patient relations, monitoring of health care quality and mechanisms to mediate medical disputes need to be improved.// Source: China Daily, 04 November 2015.

Change to the birth-control policy from allowing one child to two children

• The CCP announced a change to the 30-year-long one-child policy and allowed citizens to bear two children at most in order to tackle the aging problem in China and to increase labour supply. It sparked a discussion on the impacts of the previous one-child policy, the citizens’ right of reproduction, the timing of the policy, and its potential impact. For historical background of birth-control policy in China, see here by Nanfang Weekly (in Chinese)

• On the human right of reproduction: //Abolishing the one-child policy would “increase labor supply and ease pressures from an aging population,” the National Health and Family Planning Commission, which enforces the policy, said in a statement issued after the party meeting. “This will benefit sustained and healthy economic development,” the commission said. […] The party decision to relax the restriction on family size will not take effect immediately. Like the previous relaxation of policy in 2013, this policy change must first be endorsed and refined by the central government and then implemented by provincial-level governments, which can introduce their own variations on the general policy. That could take many months. […] Liang Zhongtang, a retired demographer who has advised Chinese officials on population policy since the 1980s and has long argued that they should relax the one-child policy, said the change had come too late to make a big difference in the country’s population trajectory. He said he had pushed for such a change since the 1980s. “It’s not just a problem of whether you permit ordinary people to have one or two kids. It’s about returning their reproductive rights to them,” Liang said in a telephone interview from Shanghai. “In over 200 countries and regions around the world, which of them nowadays controls people’s reproduction like this?”// Source: New York Times, 29 October 2015.

• On the changes to the aging problem in China: //Wang Feng, a leading expert on demographic and social change in China, called the change an « historic event » that would change the world but said the challenges of China’s aging society would remain. « It’s an event that we have been waiting for a generation, but it is one we have had to wait much too long for, » Wang said. « It won’t have any impact on the issue of the aging society, but it will change the character of many young families, » Wang said. […] William Nee, a China researcher at human rights campaign group Amnesty International, also urged China to go farther. « China should immediately and completely end its control over people’s decisions to have children. This would not only be good for improving human rights, but would also make sense given the stark demographic challenges that lie ahead, » he said.// Source: Reuters, 30 October 2015.

• On the economic condition of raising a child in China: //Mead Johnson, one of the top five international baby formula brands in China, said it did not expect the policy adjustment to « significantly impact births or birth rates in China, consistent with what we have seen in previous rounds of relaxation. » […] Retail sales of baby food in China in 2011 totaled 68 billion yuan, or about $10.7 billion, with sales of baby milk formula accounting for about 90 percent of the value, the USDA said in a report last month, citing data from Euromonitor. Fred Gale, a senior economist for the USDA, said he did not expect a detectable impact on dairy demand from the change in policy due to the expense of raising a child in China – a sentiment echoed by Chinese citizens posting to microblogging site Weibo.// Source: Reuters, 30 October 2015

• On the impact of the change on social welfare: //Liang Jianzhang, a professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, said the rule change could lead to a baby boom in the next two years that puts pressure on authorities to come up with extra medical care and schooling resources. […] The nation’s number of people over the age of 65 reached 137 million, or more than 10 percent of the population, at the end of last year, official data show. The United Nations says that a country has an aging population if at least 7 percent of its people are over the age of 65. This graying population is already straining the country’s pension system, prompting authorities to consider raising the age of retirement from 50 to 55 for most women and from 60 to 65 for men, moves that would be gradually introduced. The change in the one-child policy may not be enough to keep China’s population from shrinking, something experts predict will start happening, possible as early as 2017. Liang said that research done from 1980 to 2011 found that the average number of children that couples wanted was between 1.6 to 1.8, lower than the 2.2 needed to keep the population from shrinking.// Source: Caixin, 30 October 2015

• Reviewing the impacts of the one-child policy: //The policy has caused social disruption as well. Due to cultural pressure to have boys, about 116 boys were born for every 100 girls in China last year, according to official media, compared with the World Health Organization’s natural rate of around 105 to 100. It has also led to horror stories such as local officials who force women into abortions to make population targets. […] China has the world’s largest population at 1.37 billion. But China’s working-age population—those who are 15 to 64—is drastically shrinking. The United Nations projects that the number of Chinese over the age of 65 will jump 85% to 243 million, in 2030, up from 131 million this year. In effect, said Cai Yong, an expert in China’s demography and professor at the University of North Carolina, China risks becoming old before it becomes rich. “I’m quite pessimistic,” said Mr. Cai, who said the Communist Party missed its best chance to lift the policy a decade ago.// Source: The Wall Street Journal, 30 October 2015.

• In a research paper on the China Journal, argued that the effects of the one-child policy have been exaggerated. Some of their concluded analyses are excerpted For the full paper, please see the article “Challenging Myths about China’s One-Child Policy”. //The even more coercive one-child campaign was based on politics and pseudo-science, rather than on necessity, much less on good demography. China could have achieved further progress in lowering fertility with some version of a two-child policy, a choice that would have sharply reduced the human suffering caused after 1980. Despite the widespread coercion and abuses connected to the new policy, it was not in fact very successful initially in reducing fertility levels further. Fertility rates fluctuated through most of the 1980s and only resumed their decline toward today’s sub-replacement levels at the end of the decade. While a substantial portion of China’s dramatic decline in fertility rates since 1970 can be attributed to the implementation of mandatory birth control, it is highly misleading to claim that the one-child policy successfully prevented 400 million extra births. Despite the coercive ferocity of the campaign, China’s rapid economic development since 1980 deserves the lion’s share of the credit for the (much more modest) numbers of reduced births that have occurred as the country’s total fertility rate further declined, from about 2.7-2.8 at the end of the 1970s to perhaps 1.4-1.5 today. It is a damning indictment of the Chinese record that all of her Confucian neighbors in East Asia achieved rapid declines to their present sub-replacement fertility rates via robust economic growth supplemented by voluntary birth planning campaigns, thus avoiding the massive abuses that China’s misguided launching of the one-child program produced.// Source: The China Journal, July 2015, p.159

• Challenging the perceived effect of one-child policy by Cai Yong: // The original goal of the policy was to keep China’s population to 1.2 billion in the year 2000, according to Cai Yong, a sociology professor at University of North Carolina, and a fellow at the Carolina Population Center. In fact, China’s population reached a level of 1.26 billion in 2000, meaning they were over the mark by 60 million people. But the underlying motivation for that goal of 1.2 billion people was to increase GDP per capita — and China’s GDP grew much more quickly than the pessimistic predictions in 1980 had expected. So the GDP per capita was way above target, even though the population also grew more quickly than intended. But Cai has studied the fertility rates of 16 comparable countries, all of which saw rapid declines since 1980 without any one-child policy in place. In a 2012 paper, co-authored with Wang Feng and Gu Baocheng, Cai found that China’s projections of future birth rates at the time were unrealistic, when you compare them with the experiences of other countries. […] In the 1970s, the Chinese government was experimenting with less authoritarian approaches to population control, including the « Later Longer Fewer » policy, which encouraged women to wait longer to have children and have fewer of them. « Compared to the brutal one-child policy, it’s more benign, » says Cai. Many women welcomed the ability to wait longer to have children, given the terrible economic situation of the early 1970s, and the government made it easier to access birth control. The government also had study sessions and meetings to push the idea of having fewer children.// Source: IO9 Blog, 29 January 2014.

• Challenging the impact of one-child policy by Amartya Sen: //The one-child policy was introduced in 1978. But the fertility rate had already been falling rapidly for a decade before that — from an average of 5.87 births per woman in 1968 to 2.98 in 1978. After that huge drop, the fertility rate continued to fall with the new draconian policy in force, but there was no plunge — only a smooth continuation of the falling trend that preceded the restriction. From 2.98 in 1978, the rate has declined to 1.67 now. Clearly, something more than the one-child policy has been affecting birthrates in China. Statistics that compare different countries, as well as empirical analysis of data from hundreds of districts within India, indicate sharply that the two most potent factors that induce fertility reduction globally are women’s schooling and women’s paid employment. Reasoning in decision making is not exclusive to the West. In China it clearly has played a significant part already in restraining family size. It also has other important roles to play. Despite China’s extraordinary social and economic success (not just in economic growth), it has one of the worst records in the world in the selective abortion of female fetuses; the number of girls born per 100 male births has been as low as 85, compared with a normal rate around 95 in countries where there is little or no selective intervention against female birth. Chinese women have made huge progress in most spheres of life, but traditional “boy preference” is still rampant. However, legal remedies against sex-selective abortion, like outlawing it, have been ineffective wherever they have been tried. What is needed is more reasoning, aided by further use of women’s empowerment, against such an arbitrary and dehumanizing bias. // Source: New York Times, 2 November 2015.

President Xi’s visit to Britain (20-23 October 2015)

• Xi’s visit to Britain was accompanied by economic deals worth about 40 billion pounds, covering areas including nuclear energy, automobiles, movies, healthcare, petroleum and insurance. Among the deals, cooperation in the petroleum was the biggest and the construction of nuclear plants with the involvement of Chinese state-owned enterprise caught attention. Britain was said to throw a rather lavish welcoming to Xi, which some media said with ‘the reddest of the red carpet’.

• //習近平對英國進行國事訪問期間，中英雙方簽署、達成的協議和共識多達59項，涵蓋政治、防務、商業、文化等多方面。其中簽署的包括核電、汽車、電影、醫療衞生、石油和保險等領域的多項實質合作協議，總值約400億英鎊（近4778億港元）。協議當中，以石油天然氣合作的金額最大，包括英國石油公司（BP）在內的英國石油企業與中方簽署了總值超過120億英鎊（逾1433億港元）的油氣合作協議。中石油與BP達成的《戰略合作框架協議》指出，除加強油氣資源開發，不斷拓展下游零售業務範圍及合作模式，並將繼續深化伊拉克魯邁拉油田再開發合作。// Source: Hong Kong Economic Journal, 23 October 2015

• //Construction of Britain’s first new nuclear plant in a generation will begin « within weeks », developer EDF has announced, after a Chinese state-backed nuclear company agreed to fund a third of its £18 billion cost. A deal between the French and Chinese companies, hailed as « historic » by David Cameron, was signed in the presence of the Prime Minister and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday afternoon. […] EDF and China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) also confirmed they will work together on two further plants: at Sizewell in Suffolk, where CGN will fund 20 per cent of development costs; and at Bradwell in Essex, where CGN plans to use its own reactor design and will fund two-thirds of the development costs. Bradwell would be the first place Chinese nuclear technology has been used in the West, if the design gets safety clearance for use in the UK. […] Instead EDF, which is majority owned by the French state, will fund its £12 billion share of the plant from its own group balance sheet through a combination of equity and borrowing, and may not need to use any UK Government guarantees beyond the initial £2 billion tranche already signed off. // Source: The Telegraph, 21 October 2015

• Tao Duanfang (陶短房), a Chinese columnist, pointed out that the Chinese government would like to have closer relations with Britain because the latter can help China establish RMB off-shore centre in Europe and open the European market by having infrastructure projects first built according to the strict European standards by Chinese state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, Britain will benefit from the increased volume of trade between the two countries as China is already the second largest trading partner for Britain.

• // 早在2012年，中英就启动了伦敦人民币离岸业务中心合作。如今，伦敦已成为最具活力的人民币离岸市场，去年伦敦人民币交易规模同比增长143%，人民币存款达200亿元，同比增长37%。自去年6月起，中国银行间外汇市场完善了人民币对英镑的交易方式，中国各商业银行纷纷加大在伦敦的外汇交易业务。中国投资者在伦敦东部斥资10亿英镑打造的“小中华”金融中心，已成为伦敦市关注的焦点。[…] 由于在这方面双方频繁互动，许多项目实际上早已实现。例如，不久前，马凯和奥斯本在北京会晤期间，中英双方就已达成RQFII（指人民币合格境外投资者）首次扩展至香港以外，中方授予英方800亿元人民币合格境外投资者额度。 […] 连接伦敦和英格兰北部的HS2高铁项目，在英国一直是一个争议极大的项目。[…]目前，HS2虽然立项，但进展缓慢，招投标迄今未正式展开。这意味着英方尚未就参与投标者的资质提出具体要求，中方和其它有意竞争者也就不可能为投标作前期准备。在习近平主席此次访问期间，高铁方面可能收获一些前期研究性的合作谅解，签单恐怕是来不及了。中标英国高铁可以适应以严格著称的欧洲TSI（欧铁互联互通技术规范），并进而打开高铁门槛最高的欧盟的壁垒，对中国而言，这个项目的重要性不言而喻，正因为如此，就更需稳扎稳打。[…] 《国际工商时报》引述英国国家统计局（ONS）的数据指出，自2004年以来中国对英国经济的重要性与日俱增——2004年中英进出口贸易总额为114亿英镑，占英国总进出口量比重的3%，2014年则增至376亿英镑，占英国总进出口量比重的7%，成为仅次于美国的英国第二大进出口贸易伙伴。从泰晤士水务到欣克利角核电站，“黄金十年”间英国经济的中国元素不断增多。// Source: Nanfang Weekly, 22 October 2015

• It is oft cited that Britain and China have now entered the “Golden Era” of Sino-British relations, indicating their closer cooperation with each other, in particular on economic issues. By the end of the President Xi’s visit, the two states released the “UK-China Joint Statement on building a global comprehensive strategic partnership for the 21st Century”. For the bilingual full text of the Joint Statement, see BBC News (Chinese Edition).

• //Various communities in Britain believe that Xi’s visit has profoundly promoted British-Chinese relations and opened a golden era of the global comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, while Britain should catch this opportunity to grow together with China. In an article recently published by British newspaper The Observer, British Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne wrote: « It’s in Britain’s interest to bond with China now. » « We want a golden relationship with China that will help foster a golden decade for this country. It is an opportunity that the UK can’t afford to miss, » he said. « We need to double our efforts to strengthen our economic links, help British firms enter there, and attract more investment into the UK and the northern provinces, » he said. […] A huge number of commercial deals signed between China and Britain during Xi’s visit will bring job opportunities to Britain, said Dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo, an international relations and international political economy expert at King’s College London. The deals also meet the needs of the Chinese government and enterprises to explore new business opportunities, said Pardo. Bennett said that cooperation projects on nuclear power stations between the two countries have drawn great attention, and the extensiveness and diversification of cooperation agreements between them also deserve to be focused on.// Source: Xinhua, 25 October 2015

A discussion on the implications of “Golden Era” of Sino-British relations took place at China File:

•  Isabel Hilton: //It is not just startled Britons who would welcome clarification. Britain’s traditional allies, too, have raised eyebrows over, for instance, Mr. Osborne’s enthusiastic embrace of a Chinese plan to design, build and operate a nuclear plant in southeast England, inserting a Chinese state-owned enterprise into the U.K.’s critical infrastructure, with the almost unlimited potential that implies for long-term leverage over the UK’s future political and diplomatic choices.// Source: China File Conversation, 20 October 2015.

• Jonathan Fenby: //or a government seeking to reduce its national deficit while wanting to spend heavily on infrastructure, a partner which declares itself ready to pump in money while proclaiming the start of a beautiful friendship has obvious allure. […] The policy has been formulated by George Osborne, the hard-headed Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister), with Prime Minister David Cameron signing up to it. Osborne, who has taken over—direction of China policy from the Foreign Office, makes no bones about where he is heading—to boost economic ties both in Chinese investment in the UK and British exports to the mainland regardless of any other considerations. // Source: China File Conversation, 20 October 2015.

• Sophie Richardson: //Sadly, Osborne’s behavior is only the latest in a long line of British human rights capitulations. Under Prime Minister Gordon Brown in 2008, the United Kingdom succumbed to Chinese pressure and recognized Beijing’s sovereignty over Tibet. More recently, London failed to stand up for full democracy in Hong Kong, the Chinese territory that was a British colony until 1997. Following huge pro-democracy street protests in late 2014, London described Beijing’s insistence that it control the candidates who could run for Hong Kong’s top office as allowing space “for a meaningful step forward for democracy.” In March, the United Kingdom became the first Western nation to support the establishment of China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, despite the bank’s lack of standards protecting against development-related abuses. (London says it will work to see such standards adopted.) And although London ultimately reversed its denial of a long-term visa to artist and government critic Ai Weiwei this August, that British officials ever dignified Beijing’s efforts to persecute him is astonishing.// Source: China File Conversation, 20 October 2015.
• Another analyst, George Magnus, pointed out that China needs the British ally as well as Britain is a close ally with the United States and its membership in the EU. Also, London as the European financial centre is helpful for the RMB internationalization.

• //Its status as a major US ally is an obvious attraction, as is its position as a commercial conduit to the EU. And British politicians have been solicitous. When George Osborne visited China earlier this year, the Chancellor of the Exchequer earned his hosts’ goodwill by travelling to the troubled western province of Xinjiang (and discussing the construction business, rather than human rights, once he was there). […] But the biggest draw is undoubtedly the City of London, which occupies a central place in the global financial system in which China would like its currency to play a bigger role. […] Both governments want London to become the premier western financial centre for renminbi trading, clearing and settlement facilities. Hence a flurry of recent announcements. Some are technical, such as an extended currency swap facility. Others, such as a study to investigate how the Shanghai and London stock exchanges could be more closely linked, may not get very far. But some will make a difference. A batch of renminbi-denominated sovereign bonds will henceforth be issued in London — the first time this has happened outside China.// Source: Financial Times, 19 October 2015

Climate Change issues and the Hollande’s visit to China

• //French president François Hollande hopes to use a state visit to China to boost difficult climate negotiations, a month before a UN conference in Paris aimed at slowing global warming. […] China, the most populous country and the biggest emitter of climate-warming greenhouse gases in the world, has promised it will try to cap its rising emissions before 2030 as part of its national pledge ahead of the Paris conference. […] Hollande says he intends to launch a bilateral appeal with Chinese President Xi Jinping “to make the climate conference a success.” […] France is notably trying to get China’s approval of a mechanism that would require countries to step up their emissions cuts over time. This would be “a key” to success of the UN climate talks, a French diplomatic official said, because the current national pledges won’t be enough to achieve the goal of keeping the rise in global temperatures below 2C between pre-industrial times and the end of the century.// Source: The Guardian, 02 November 2015

• Before President Hollande finished his visit to China, he and President Xi signed a joint declaration on climate change, agreeing to include a review mechanism in every 5 years in order to control the global warming below 2 Celsius degree increase since the pre-industrial level. The two national leaders also agreed to develop respective national strategies to achieve low-carbon economy in the next 5 years.

• //François Hollande, France’s president, said that support for a monitoring system from China, the world’s biggest polluter, was a “major step” forward that created a “likelihood the Paris conference will succeed”. […] Environmental groups on Monday said the bilateral agreement between France and China was a step forward, showing intent by Beijing, and was in stark contrast to the country’s level of engagement ahead of the Copenhagen summit in 2009. Jennifer Morgan, director of the climate programme at the World Resources Institute, said the support of China for this mechanism would help “put pressure on others,” such as the US and India to support it as well. But the agreement was labelled an “incremental step forward” by campaigners at Greenpeace, who highlighted the vague language. The statement said that each signatory to the Paris accord should have their progress reviewed every five years to see if they are achieving their “approved long-term goals” But it remained unclear who would conduct the review or how it would be enforced, leaving the details to be hammered out in the coming weeks. “This is no time for champagne. This bilateral statement should be another springboard instead of the last word for the Paris agreement,” said Jean-Francois Julliard, executive director of Greenpeace France. […] The two presidents did declare their intention to release their own national strategies to develop low-carbon economies by 2050 as soon as possible within the next five years.// Source: Financial Times, 02 November 2015.

• //中国国家主席习近平和来华访问的法国总统奥朗德签署了中法关于气候的联合声明，双方同意在一个月后在巴黎可能达成的气候协议中应加入每五年一次的盘点机制 […] 联合声明呼吁，所有的国家应当在巴黎达成一份有法律效力的协议，以实现控制全球升温2摄氏度的目标。“中法双方强调巴黎协议必须发出全世界向绿色低碳、气候适应型和可持续发展转型的明确信号。”声明写道。//Source: Caixin, 03 November 2015.

• Anthony Kleven argued that there is a reason for the Chinese authorities to achieve carbon emission reduction, i.e. heavy air pollution with the extensive use of low-cost coal for energy generation.//Many have been tempted to question both the sudden burst of environmental altruism on China’s behalf as well as the political sustainability of its intentions. Perhaps the deadly Tianjin blast and its fallout managed to shake Beijing out of its torpor. Others consider China’s motives to sit firmly in the domain of political point-scoring in an effort to win over Asian neighbors who have traditionally sought the partnership of the U.S. and European nations. There is, though, a very real and salient reason why China would suddenly wish to take the bull by the horns on this front: namely the very immediate threat that pollution is already having upon its population. In fact, the crisis is so grave that air pollution is estimated to be responsible for 4,400 deaths every day. […] However, China’s continued reliance on coal to fire the nation’s engines–one of the chief reasons its carbon emissions are so high–is nevertheless the one area where Beijing is still lagging behind. The use of cheap coal to create energy has long been one of the greatest issues facing any efforts to address climate change, especially as there are so many alternative (yet more expensive) energy sources available to those nations that have the economic capacity to invest in them. And it’s not just households that are dependent on coal – it’s industry as well.// Source: The Diplomat, 16 October 2015.

• Newly released data showed that the actual volume of coal consumption in China has been underestimated.// The new data, which appeared recently in an energy statistics yearbook published without fanfare by China’s statistical agency, show that coal consumption has been underestimated since 2000, and particularly in recent years. The revisions were based on a census of the economy in 2013 that exposed gaps in data collection, especially from small companies and factories. Illustrating the scale of the revision, the new figures add about 600 million tons to China’s coal consumption in 2012 — an amount equivalent to more than 70 percent of the total coal used annually by the United States. China burned or otherwise consumed 4.2 billion metric tons in 2013, according to the new data, and its emissions now far exceed those of any other country, including the United States, the second-largest emitter. […] This is not the first time China has underestimated its coal consumption. In the late 1990s, small coal mines were ordered to close, but many of them simply stopped reporting their output to the government. For a time, this created an erroneous impression that China had succeeded in generating economic growth without increasing emissions. More recently, some scientists concluded that China’s emissions were lower than widely believed because the coal it was using burned less efficiently than researchers had generally assumed. But Mr. Yang said that conclusion had been disputed. The revised numbers do not alter scientists’ estimates of the total amount of carbon dioxide in the air. That is measured directly, not inferred from fuel consumption statistics the way countries’ emissions are usually estimated.// Source: New York Times, 03 November 2015.

Updates on TPP and free trade agreement between China and other countries

• //US Trade Representative Michael Froman has indicated it is premature to discuss China’s participation in an American-led Pacific free trade initiative that was broadly agreed on earlier this month. China has “a long way to go to be able to meet standards”, Froman told a conference organised by a think tank in Washington. To join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TTP, China would have to deal with mounting new issues, such as labour and environmental standards, protections against trade secret theft and a free and open internet, Froman said.// Source: SCMP, 16 October 2015

• //A free-trade agreement between China and Australia will be in place before the end of the year after the Australian opposition dropped its objections to the plan following lengthy negotiations. The deal will now be approved by the Australian Parliament with the support of the centre-left Labor Party, whose misgivings had held up its passage through the legislature. But a Hong Kong-based economics expert said the pact may not have much effect on either economy, adding that China was trying to strike many deals in the region to counter the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership. […] The deal between China and Australia was originally struck in November 2014 but had been held up by opposition parties over concerns around its effect on local jobs. John Brumby, the national president of the Australia China Business Council, enthusiastically welcomed the announcement yesterday, saying it would be good for the country. « [The agreement] is overwhelmingly positive for Australia, delivering a platform to take our economic relationship to a new level and providing our businesses with immense competitive advantage in the large and rapidly growing China market, » he said.// Source: SCMP, 22 October 2015

South China Sea Dispute

• The US challenged China’s sovereignty claim over the South China Sea and asserted that the sea area in dispute is in international waters.// The Chinese authorities sent a warning to a US Navy ship on Tuesday morning after it “illegally” entered waters near a disputed group of hundreds of reefs, islets, atolls and islands in the South China Sea, the Foreign Ministry said. The movement of the USS Lassen, a guided missile destroyer, was closely monitored as it moved close to an artificial island built by China inside what Beijing claims as a 12-nautical mile (22km) territorial limit around Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands archipelago, the ministry added. […] The ship’s arrival had been a long-anticipated challenge to what the Obama administration considers Beijing’s “excessive claim” of sovereignty in those waters, a US defence official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the White House approved the movement by the USS Lassen and that the patrol was completed without incident. […] White House spokesman Josh Earnest referred questions on any specific operations to the Pentagon, but said the US had made clear to China the importance of a free flow of commerce in the South China Sea. “There are billions of dollars of commerce that float through that region of the world,” Earnest told a news briefing. Asked for comment about the US move, a spokesman at the Chinese embassy in Washington, Zhu Haiquan, said China respected freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. “Freedom of navigation and overflight should not be used as excuse to flex muscle and undermine other countries’ sovereignty and security,” he said. […]“Make no mistake, the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do around the world, and the South China Sea is not and will not be an exception,” US Defence Secretary Ash Carter said on October 13.// Source: SCMP, 27 October 2015.

Currency reform in China

• Many signs show that there is a high chance that RMB will be included in the Special Drawing Rights of the IMF in November and will become one of the international currencies. The decision has yet been made up to now but scheduled to do so at the end of November.

• //An IMF spokesman said staff were finalising a report to be considered at a formal board meeting planned for November, although no date had yet been set. “The decision on the possible inclusion of the RMB in the SDR basket will ultimately be made by the IMF’s executive board when the meeting is held,” he said. The second official said that may be postponed until early 2016. Any change to the basket will take effect in October 2016. China has rolled out a flurry of reforms recently to liberalise its markets and also help the yuan meet the criterion of being “freely usable”, or widely used to make international payments and traded on foreign exchange markets. China’s central bank on Friday said it was freeing the interest rate market by scrapping a ceiling on deposit rates. […] The authorities have began weekly issuance of three-month Treasury bills and plan to extend yuan trading hours to overlap with Europe, all moves aimed at addressing IMF concerns, but also making it difficult to close out the checklist of technical criteria. A positive staff review will cement a lower hurdle for board approval: a 70 per cent voting majority rather than the 85 per cent which is normally reserved for the IMF’s toughest decisions. Experts said the political winds were blowing in Beijing’s favour. France and the United Kingdom have backed the yuan’s inclusion and countries including Germany and Italy have said they are open to the move, depending on the technical criteria. Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and former head of the IMF’s China Division, said he could not see the United States or Japan bucking a positive staff recommendation. “I think it will be very difficult for the IMF, especially given all that China has done this year, to deny China the prize it really wants,” he said.// Source: SCMP, 26 October 2015

CCP Issues Standards on “Integrity and Self-Restraint”

• On October 12, the CCP Central Committee adopted the Chinese Communist Party Standards on Integrity and Self Restraint (中国共产党廉洁自律准则) as an ethical code for party cadres. For the Chinese text of the regulations, please see Xinhua. The CCP also made amendment to the Regulation on Disciplinary Punishment (中国共产党纪律处分条例). The amendment was basically about deletion of content that repeats that of PRC’s Criminal law. It also added certain new rules to govern the behavior of CCP members. For examples, CCP cadres are forbidden to comment freely on the core policies of Party’s center (妄议中央大政方针). CCP cadres are not allowed to form “cliques” within the Party, etc. For the Chinese full text, please see China News.

• // 舊版《中國共產黨紀律處分條例》制定於2003年。2013年11月發布的首個黨內法規制定工作五年規劃《中央黨內法規制定工作五年規劃綱要（2013－2017年）》將條例修改提上日程。[…]中紀委特約監察員、中國政法大學副校長馬懷德接受《新京報》採訪時表示，新條例體現出習近平、王岐山提出的上述修改要求，刪除了舊條例中70餘條與刑法、治安管理處罰法等法律法規重複的內容，「舊條例最大的問題是紀法不分，近一半內容跟刑法、治安管理處罰法等法律法規重複。」[…] 對比舊條例，新條例政治紀律「負面清單」至少出現了三個新提法：「妄議中央大政方針，破壞黨的集中統一」、「在黨內搞團團夥夥、結黨營私、拉幫結派、培植私人勢力或者通過搞利益交換、為自己營造聲勢等活動撈取政治資本」、「對抗組織審查」。[…] 對比舊條例，新條例組織紀律「負面清單」新增規定：黨員領導幹部違反有關規定組織、參加自發成立的老鄉會、校友會、戰友會等，情節嚴重的，給予警告、嚴重警告或者撤銷黨內職務處分。[…] 2013年和2014年，習近平兩次在不同場合表示，黨的幹部來自五湖四海，不能藉著老鄉會、同學會、戰友會等場合，搞小圈子、拉幫結派、稱兄道弟，「宗派主義必須處理，山頭主義必須剷除」。[…] 廉潔紀律「負面清單」新增規定：搞權色交易或者給予財物搞錢色交易的，給予警告或者嚴重警告處分；情節較重的，給予撤銷黨內職務或者留黨察看處分；情節嚴重的，給予開除黨籍處分。//Source: Storm Media, 22 October 2015

• //The new rules update existing regulations and are designed to codify more clearly what constitutes a violation of discipline, the official Xinhua news agency said late on Wednesday. They apply to all 88 million party members for the first time, and also include a new ethical code. « Party members must separate public and private interests, put the public’s interest first, and work selflessly, » the Xinhua report said. Party members must also « champion simplicity and guard against extravagance ». « The new discipline regulation explicitly lists extravagant eating and drinking and playing golf as violations, which were not included previously, » it said. […] The new rules are a blow to China’s nascent market for golf, which is often seen as providing an opportunity for officials to make shady deals and an extravagance for government employees. « In other countries golf is more about the sport, here it’s about the social interaction. If a company boss can’t play with a government official, there’s little point in him spending his money, » said the owner of a golf equipment store in Shanghai who only gave his surname as Huang. […] Party officials who play golf have already been targeted by Xi’s crackdown. Last year, the government began more rigorously enforcing a decade-old ban on building new courses. In March this year, it shut down 66 golf courses. […] Beyond golf, the new Communist Party rules also mention « improper sexual relations », broadening the scope of proscriptions that before only referred to « keeping paramours and conducting adultery ». The charge of adultery is frequently leveled at high-ranking graft suspects as a way of showing they are morally degenerate and deserve punishment. Forming « cliques » that seek to split the party is also banned under the new regulations, along with hiding personal issues that should be reported, and abusing positions of power to seek gain for family members and staff.// Source: Reuters, 22 October 2015

• On her blog, legal scholar Floria Sapio regarded the new regulations as one of the most important pieces of Party legislation.// Together with the Regulations on Disciplinary Punishment, the Standards are one of the most important pieces of Party legislation. The Regulations on Disciplinary Punishment define certain conducts as violations of Party discipline and specify the punishment associated with each one of them. The Standards, as they were enacted in 1997 (here – Chinese) and amended in February 2010 (here – in Chinese), aimed at « regulating the honest performance of official duties » (规范廉政从政行为). […] One should not be tempted to dismiss the Standards as a mere exercise in political rhetoric. Together with the amended version of the Regulations on Disciplinary Punishment, as well as other legislative and regulatory documents, they have given legal form to Xi Jinping’s theory of the « Four Comprehensives ». Even though the short preamble to the Standards does not reference the Four Comprehensives, the Notice with which both the Standards and the Regulations were issued makes it clear that the two regulations embody « comprehensively strictly governing the Party » and introduce a partially new and different set of ethical and behavioral standards. //Source: Forgotten Archipelago, 23 October 2015

Detention of Southern Metropolis Daily journalist

• Liu Wei (刘伟) from the Southern Metropolis Daily was reported to be caught by the police for his investigation into Wang Lin (王林) on 08 October 2015. He was suspected of obtaining state secrets. // The detention of respected investigative reporter Liu Wei on suspicion of allegedly illegally obtaining state secrets has sparked concerns among mainland journalists over their work responsibilities and safety. Liu, 37, deputy director of the Guangdong-based Southern Metropolis News, was detained by police in the city of Pingxiang, in Jiangxi province, on October 8, his newspaper confirmed on Friday night. He reportedly « disappeared » at Chengdu airport, in Sichuan province. […] Most reports of Liu’s detention were quickly censored on digital platforms on Friday, but only after many journalists had shared the news on social media. Liu’s articles, revealing the links between controversial self-proclaimed qigong master Wang Lin and celebrities, business people and party cadres, are believed to have led to his detention. […] His comprehensive coverage of the scandal, which sparked widespread social media discussion, began in 2013 after several celebrities accused Wang of charging exorbitant fees for medical fees and also claim that he had no medical expertise. […] Soon after Wang’s detention, Southern Metropolis News published several documents it said were signed by Wang — allegedly showing he had ordered the surveillance and detention of the dead man — that had been given to Liu by Wang’s family.  […] Liu’s detention, after obtaining the documents was typical of many cases, said a source involved in the case, speaking on condition of anonymity. « Journalists often receive documents like this and it’s illogical that Liu would have known it was unreasonable for a wife to possess documents signed by her husband, » the source said. « If it had happened a few years ago he would not have been held; now we’re in an era when it’s becoming commonplace to detain journalists. »// Source: SCMP, 19 October 2015

• Liu Wei was put to the China Central Television on 31 October 2015 and publicly repented his act of law violation for exclusive media coverage.//因报道王林案而被抓的南都记者刘伟，周六（31日）现身官媒中央电视台新闻频道公开悔罪。刘伟指自己深爱新闻职业，称后悔为获取独家报道资讯而违法。有媒体人表示理解他的处境，并指警方滥权，使到舆论监督的空间受到严重挤压。[…] 在还没有经法院审判，就让当事人在央视公开悔罪，是2013年以来，当局最常用的做法。在此之前，当局以抓捕其儿子的手段迫使记者高瑜等在央视悔罪。// Source: Minzhuzhongguo, 31 October 2015

President Xi’s visit to Britain and its relevance to Hong Kong

• Some people in Hong Kong are concerned about whether Britain, the former ruler of Hong Kong, would urge the Beijing government to allow democracy in Hong Kong.//David Cameron sought assurances from the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, about political freedom in the former UK colony of Hong Kong, as the week-long festival of closer Sino-British co-operation neared its end. […] Cameron was seeking assurances that the Hong Kong government would remain semi-autonomous and entitled to choose its own leadership without prior vetting by the Chinese government.// Source: The Guardian, 22 October 2015

• Cameron’s approach to Hong Kong was not well received by the city’s media. One local newspaper editorial criticized his approach as more form than substances as he has actively shied away from discussing human rights issues with President Xi and only talked about Hong Kong when economic deals were securely sealed.

• //梅倫接待習近平一路言笑晏晏，即使有記者提出人權問題，他也為身旁的上賓擋駕，表示不同意兩國關係只能是經濟與人權二者挑一，「我想兩者兼得」；待至經貿合作敲定了，投資協議簽好了，兩人於首相鄉間別墅契克斯（Chequers）穿上便服摸杯底閒談，英國《衞報》才獨家披露，在這次非正式的莊園對話之中，卡梅倫向習近平提出香港問題，要求眼前的中國主席「對確保這一前英國殖民地的政治自由作出承諾」。據報道，卡梅倫認為香港政府應該保持「半自治狀態（Semi-Autonomous）」，香港「應該有資格在不經過中國政府預先篩選的情況下選舉領導人」。至於習近平當時如何回應，報道則沒有提及。大家不善忘的話，應該記得今年六月十八日政改方案表決之前，英國的官方態度是支持「袋住先」，亦即是不介意二○一七年普選特首之時「有篩選」，為什麼事至如今，忽然又敦促中國政府讓香港在沒有預先篩選的情況之下選舉首長？更何況，為什麼不在正式會晤之時提出，要在莊園私底下閒聊時才宣之於口？尤其值得注意的是，如果不是有人向《衞報》獨家放料，恐怕香港問題根本不會見光。至於卡梅倫所說的「半自治狀態」，相信不少人完全摸不着頭腦，因為相比於世人所熟悉和理解的「高度自治」，半自治似有降格之虞。// Source: Hong Kong Economic Journal, 27 October 2015

President Xi jinping and President Ma Ying-jeou to meet in Singapore historically as leaders of the Mainland and Taiwan

• On 07 November 2015, the direct dialogue between the two presidents is historic as it will be the first meeting from the two sides since the Chinese civil war (1946-49). To follow the One-China Principle, they will address each other as ‘Mr.’ instead of their respective official titles. There will also be no press conference or joint statement afterwards. Nevertheless, the presidential candidate of Democratic Progressive Party (the Green Camp) criticized the hastiness of the meeting and Ma’s representativeness of Taiwan as a president who is about to step down in two months.

• //Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, is scheduled to meet Taiwan’s leader Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore on Nov 7 to discuss cross-Straits issues, a Chinese mainland Taiwan affairs official said Wednesday in Beijing.// Source: China Daily, 06 November 2015

• //大陸國台辦主任張志軍昨日稱，「習馬會」將開啟兩岸領導 人直接交流溝通的先河，雙方以兩岸領導人身分和名義舉行、見面時互稱「先生」，這是在兩岸政治分歧尚未徹底解決的情况下根據一個中國原則作出的務實安排， 體現擱置爭議、相互尊重的精神。雙方將探討深化兩岸各領域交流合作等問題，會面結束後，兩岸領導人將共晉晚餐。[…]「習馬會」在台灣遭綠營強烈反對，中央社引述民進黨主席、 總統候選人蔡英文說，對突然傳出「習馬會」消息，感到「相當突兀」，兩岸領導人會面涉及台灣的尊嚴和國家利益，在如此混亂倉卒的狀態下讓國人知道，對台灣 的民主政治是有傷害的。她表示，「國人絕對不會允許，馬總統在即將卸任之時，為了個人的政治評價去框限台灣的未來，更無權去承諾自己無法負責的事情」。// Source: MingPao, 05 November 2015.

• MingPao editorial argued that the historic meeting is beneficial to President Ma who may leverage his relation with President Xi to strengthen his political influence after stepping down. On the mainland side, the mainland authority may have consideration about the institutionalization of direct dialogue across the Taiwan Straits in the future and thus trying to set a precedent for DPP should it manages to gain power after the presidential election in January next year. Whether the meeting can help boost KMT’s electoral campaign depends on KMT’s management of the issue.
• //放在這個框架檢視「習馬會」，馬英九個人有得着，因為他在總統任內與習近平會面，雖然隱沒了職稱，但是日後對他在國民黨的地位以至對島內政治影響力，都有加分作用。因此，「習馬會」可視為馬英九「標尾會」之作。至於大陸此時此際同意安排「習馬會」，相信考慮更多。首先，或許有嘗試提振國民黨選情之意，不過「大陸因素」在台灣選舉卻未必全然正面，去年反對服務貿易協議而爆發的群衆運動，就是最好說明。因此「習馬會」對國民黨選情的影響，主要視乎是否操作恰當。其次，不排除「習馬會」是大陸為後國民黨時期的台灣情勢作鋪墊。民進黨重新執政高唱入雲，一般相信它的兩岸政策與國民黨不同，在美國亞太再平衡戰略底下，美日如何利用台灣這顆棋子，將牽動台海形態。民進黨強勢執政，國民黨內鬥分裂不知道伊于胡底，屆時大陸如何掌控台灣情勢，費煞思量。從這個角度看來，「習馬會」不無創造籌碼的考慮。今次「習馬會」，事先聲言不會簽署任何協議，不會有共同聲明，也不會有共同記者會，就是一次見面而已。由此看來，這次「習馬會」只為雙邊交換意見，不打算達至什麼具體成果，反而為日後工作做鋪墊的考慮，好像更大一些。台灣陸委會主任委員夏立言提到「習馬會」後，希望兩岸領導人見面能制度化；這是一個良好願望。若日後兩岸領導人見面成為常態，實際上反映兩岸關係和平穩定，相信這是許多人的願望。只是台獨屬性的民進黨，難以寄望它輕易蕭規曹隨。儘管馬英九參與開創了兩岸領導人會面的先例，但是他日民進黨掌政，只要蔡英文不願意卻可以棄如敝屣，因為先例並無約束力，毋須依樣畫葫蘆。//Source: MingPao, 05 November 2015.

• Analyses of the Xi-Ma Meeting suggested that the meeting would not help KMT much for its presidential campaign. Meanwhile, it may signify Xi’s softened approach to his dealing with Taiwan in light of the fraction of Taiwan’s population with anti-Mainland sentiment.

• //Given that the Kuomintang’s candidate, Eric Chu, is trailing Ms. Tsai in the polls, the Chinese government sees a meeting with Mr. Ma as a chance to shake up the race, said Li Jiaquan, a retired Taiwan researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. “We chose the timing because the situation for K.M.T. is critical right now,” he said. “The meeting is to inspire the routed K.M.T.,” he added, “and on the other hand, suppress the charge of the D.P.P.” But Mr. Li acknowledged the gambit had little chance of success with an electorate in Taiwan that has soured on closer ties with the mainland. “I can’t say it would really work, but we need to do something to humble the D.P.P.,” he said. Many analysts in Taiwan predict the meeting will only hurt the K.M.T. further. Tsai has already gone after Mr. Ma on the issue, denouncing his surprise announcement of the meeting and warning him against making concessions that could undermine Taiwan’s status. “The way to win an election in Taiwan is to be the less dangerous of the two options,” said Nathan F. Batto, a political scientist at Academia Sinica in Taipei. The D.P.P. was voted out of power after Mr. Chen’s efforts to assert Taiwan’s sovereignty and rile China, he noted. “But over the past four years, I think Ma Ying-jeou defined himself as the more dangerous option. He engaged China too eagerly.”// Source: New York Times, 06 November 2015

• //The encounter could also pose a risk for Mr. Xi that despite all the careful protocol, meeting Mr. Ma in Singapore could elevate the status of Taiwan and undo China’s decades of efforts to isolate the island internationally. But Mr. Xi also wants to show Taiwan the potential benefits of cooperating with the mainland. “I think Xi Jinping’s goal may be to sort of weaken the faction in Taiwanese public opinion that says, ‘Let’s poke a needle in the eye of Beijing,’ ” said Andrew J. Nathan, a professor of political science at Columbia University who focuses on China. The meeting shows “Xi is willing to be a bit more innovative and creative and find accommodation of some kind,” said Orville Schell, the director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York. “It also strikes me as quite opportunistic,” he added, noting that Mr. Ma is soon to leave office, and his replacement is likely to be less accommodating.// Source: New York Times, 07 November 2015

• Stéphane Corcuff (CEFC Taipei) pointed out that China would like to keep KMT in power, at least to win either presidential or legislative election. Interviewed by Le Monde, he was quoted saying that « China has knowingly helped Ma Ying-Jeou tremendously – since for months the KMT is in such a difficult position that everyone thinks the opposition will win. How to change this situation if not by playing an enormous historical coup? For China, a defeat of the KMT at the presidential and legislative elections would pave the way for a rather unfavourable era ». Source: Le Monde, 06 November 2015, translated into English by Eric Florence.