CHINA – POLITICS

The Politburo Standing Committee

1. XI JINPING
   1. Many commented on his speech: “我们的人民热爱生活，期盼有更好的教育、更稳定的工作、更满意的收入、更可靠的社会保障、更高水平的医疗卫生服务、更舒适的居住条件、更优美的环境，期盼着孩子们能成长得更好、工作得更好、生活得更好。人民对美好生活的向往，就是我们的奋斗目标。”
      1. Did not repeat Hu’s slogans, “very frank and showed his consideration for the people”, “speaks with a human touch”
      2. IHT: Spoke in clear mandarin Chinese, reflecting his upbringing as the son of a high-ranking official in Beijing.
   2. LI KEQIANG
      1. Wang Juntao: “Like all of us back then, Li Keqiang was idealistic, open-minded, incisive and eager to see China change”. Chen Ziming: “We all have a hope that he hasn’t abandoned the beliefs of his youth, perhaps we are hoping for too much.”
      2. At Tiananmen, “when friends threw themselves into the protests that swamped Tiananmen Square, Mr. Li, in his role as league secretary, pleaded with them to return to campus, according to the memoirs of several participants.”
      3. In Henan, he was accused of covering up the AIDS crisis. Director of Aizhixing Institute: “Li Keqiang should be sentenced to life in prison for official misconduct”.
   3. ZHANG DEJIANG
   4. YU ZHENGSHENG
   5. LIU YUNSHAN: Xinzhou, Shanxi province
      • Served as party propaganda chief since 1993, joined Politburo in 2002.
      • Criticized for increasingly draconian press controls and online policing. Qiao Mu: Liu’s department micromanages the press like a firefighter putting out lots of small fires. Media outlets flooded with daily gag orders.
      • Johnny Lau: Liu’s promotion due to allegiance to Jiang, indicating conservatives have gained upper hand in leadership negotiations.
   6. WANG QISHAN
      1. NYT: Wang most able to take on management of China’s economy. However, “he was shunted aside to be head of an anticorruption commission because Li Keqiang, the second-ranked party member and designated heir to the title of government premier, which carries overall responsibility for the economy, and other leaders feared sharing that power with the confident Mr. Wang would cause friction.” Demonstrate antimeritocracy logic in leadership selection.
   7. ZHANG GAOLI

The official appraisal

1. Xinhua: They are “from the people”: “have witnessed and endured China’s vicissitudes and hardships over the last six decades, including the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976).”
   1. “Xi, Li, Zhang Dejiang and Wang toiled in communes and villages during the Cultural Revolution, when millions of high school graduates were sent to rural areas to receive “re-education” from peasants and help with rural development.”
   2. “Yu worked as a technician at a radio factory in the city of Zhangjiakou in north China’s Hebei province for a few years, while Liu was a teacher before becoming a reporter at the Xinhua News Agency. Zhang Gaoli was a craneman and loader at an oil company in south China’s Guangdong province after graduating from university.”
2. “Unlike their predecessors, the new leaders grew up in a peaceful time, which offered them a chance to receive better education than previous generations […] As witnesses and participants in ongoing globalization, the new leaders also have a broad vision and know how to deal with the international community.”
3. Global Times: 第二代向第三代平稳交班时，被外界看成是先例；第三代向第四代平稳交班时，被看成是惯例；而第四代向第五代平稳交班，将被看成是程序。

Assessment of the lineup

Mostly critical:

• Telegraph editorial, “No change in China”: “The new elite running the world’s second biggest economy and would-be superpower is just as it seems: cautious, conformist and circumspect.”

Influence of the “old guards”

1. Reuters, citing sources with ties to leadership: Retired leaders used last-minute straw poll to block Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao from joining the PSC.
   1. The two sources said votes were taken among the outgoing 24 members of the Politburo and over 10 party elders. The group held over 10 rounds of deliberations, including at least 2 informal polls, over several months at Beijing’s Jingxi Hotel.
   2. Party elders decided to drop Wang Yang “to avoid further upsetting pro-Mao factions in the party, government and military”
   3. Li Yuanchao was selected in initial polls in May, but party elders forced another vote just weeks before the congress to replace him. “Li was dumped because he alienated some elders by promoting too many of outgoing President Hu Jintao’s allies in his capacity as head of the party’s personnel department and by ignoring recommendations by retirees keen to elevate their own men.” Result: Li dropped in favor of Yu Zhengsheng.
   4. Sources: “Li is now tipped to become either a vice chairman of parliament or vice president in March, while Wang is a shoo-in to become a vice premier”
2. Ming Pao on Li Yuanchao:
   1. 作为两任总书记江泽民、胡锦涛家乡的江苏，近10年来一直风光无限。无论是全国「两会」，还是十七大、十八大，胡锦涛都作为江苏团代表，参加江苏团的审议与讨论，更令江苏分外露脸。
   2. 这几年，在江苏，无论省级机关还是基层市、县，各级官员张口闭口最喜欢称「源潮书记」，有意显示出自己与李源潮的亲近关系。 江苏官员之间甚至弥漫悲壮的氛围。大批指望跟「源潮书记」沾光的官员希望落空。
3. “Pre-election” results according to Trend Magazine 《外參》： 中央委員投票結果也顯示：習近平獲得全票，達2306張；李克強得票也達2305張，僅比習近平少一張票。 在政治局常委中，中央書記處書記劉雲山得票最少。顯示即使在中共內部，他也是在常委中最不得人心的。觀察人士普遍認為，在李長春和劉雲山管制下，中國新聞界受到文革結束以來最粗暴的打壓。劉雲山升上常委，最關鍵的因素是他促成了一本拍江澤民馬屁的英文傳記出版。
4. IHT: Reflects strong hand of Jiang Zemin
5. NYT citing former official: “In China, if I promote you, then on major issues you’re supposed to heed me.” Cite study by Victor Shih et al. published in February in American Political Science Review:
   1. Patronage networks more important than performance measures: Even meeting the target for economic growth paled in importance next to patron-client ties.
   2. Cadre management institutions “delivered promotions to followers of senior party leaders”; “no relationship between growth performance and party ranking, and a strong relationship between factional ties and rank.”
6. BBC Chinese: The triumph of political conservatism
   1. “習近平本人正是在江澤民一系的支持下五年前突然取代胡錦濤屬意的李克強成為總書記人選；新常委中的張德江、俞正聲、劉雲山等三人十年前也都是在江澤民的一 手提拔下進入政治局的；張高麗的每一次提拔也都得到了江澤民的關照。至於王岐山，雖然一向被看作是前總理朱鎔基的門徒，但是他與江的關係肯定比與胡的關係更密切
   2. 雖然從人事安排的角度看，江澤民一系是十八大的勝利者，但是從政治路線的角度看，江澤民和胡錦濤並沒有本質的區別。他們所代表的是中共內部一脈相承的政治保守主義。嚴格說來，十八大是中國精英集團所奉行的政治保守主義的勝利。是期待共產黨領導改革的黨內改革人士的又一次挫敗，也是期待政治變革的中國社會進步力量的一次挫敗。”

Xi Jinping’s ability

1. IHT: Looking ahead, all five members aside from Li Keqiang are in the mid-60s and are all likely to retire in five years. “Given the intensely consuming task of negotiating top leadership slots among competing factions, finding suitable replacements for these five could use up much of Mr Xi’s political capital”.
2. Willy Lam: “Given the predominance of conservatism in the Report [By Hu] —and the Byzantine fashion in which the new corps of leaders has been chosen—it seems unlikely that the leadership under General Secretary Xi Jinping will push reformist goals and policies in the foreseeable future.”
3. 《南德意志报》 : “一个人怎么才能从国家利益出发，制服并打破那些国有经济巨头？这些经济巨头把持了对所有重要工业领域的可怖的垄断地位，而这些经济巨头又都受党的 几乎所有最高领导成员们的家属的熟人、亲戚和生意伙伴领导和剥削。今天要当一个改革者几乎要比邓小平时代还艰难：当时，争论仅围绕意识形态进行。今天，出现了一个人数虽少但非常强大的既得利益集团，它会不惜一切捍卫其权势，捍卫其对几乎不会枯竭的资金来源的占有。”
4. Wang Xiangwei, SCMP: “Xi might surprise naysayers in West”
   1. Attacked the association of Jiang’s allies as “hardliners” and “conservatives” and Hu’s “liberals” and “reformists”: Ten-year reign of Hu and Wen has been called the “lost decade” due to lack of meaningful economic and political reform. Many Chinese now nostalgic for Jiang’s 13-year reign.
   2. Why there is hope for Xi:
      1. Reduced size of PSC: In the past decade the nine committee members functioned like line managers in multinationals, responsible only for own portfolios. Reduced size give Xi greater control.
      2. As close ally of Jiang, much easier for Xi to get support from other leaders in addressing vested interest groups.

• How to deal with both Jiang and Hu breathing down his back? Latest speculation that party elders have reached consensus to give Xi a freer hand.

1. All these “explain why we saw a confident and relaxed Xi giving an inspirational speech” that abandoned slogans.

Pecking order

1. SCMP: Three changes
   1. Position of Premier goes back to No. 2, going back to old practice dropped 15 years ago (In 1992, when Li Peng was ranked right after Jiang Zemin). In 1997, Zhu Rongji took over as premier put was put behind Li Peng. Wen Jiabao also ranked third after Wu Bangguo, NPC chairman.
   2. Also, 6^th place given to Wang Qishan, disciplinary chief, before Zhang Gaoli, poised to take over as executive vice-premier. Make premier more powerful.
   3. Removal of zhengfawei secretary.

Education background of new leaders

1. Noticeable break from previous domination by technocrats: six out of seven in the PSC are trained in the social sciences and humanities. Only technocrat being Yu Zhengsheng, who studied automated control systems for ballistic missiles.
2. Analysts cited by SCMP: Technocrats more plan-oriented, whereas new leaders may focus more on living environment and well-being. Will care more about human development.
3. Overall composition of Politburo, from SCMP:

Ideological battles; factional struggles

1. Sydney Morning Herald on banker He Di: Former chairman of UBS China, founder of Boyuan Foundation, a think tank promoting “universal values”
   1. “The party’s ”deep red” ideological spear-carriers have been fighting as if their lives are on the line. The neo-Maoists – to use He Di’s term – are sceptical of private capital, appalled by rampant corruption and antagonistic towards what they see as dangerous Western values. These adversaries, whose heroes include the fallen political star Bo Xilai and the politically-wounded corruption-fighting general, Liu Yuan, have a term for everything that He Di’s Boyuan represents: ”the Western hostile forces”.”
   2. Identify “turning point” back to centralization in 2003: “the administration drifted away from ”opening and reform” and the nascent internet space began to fill with critics of privatisation and reform. Leaders are isolated from their mid-level officials, each bureaucracy is siloed from the next, and there is no framework to mediate their interests or debate the wider merits of any particular proposal, he says. And once they started back down the old road of central planning, they grew addicted to the power it brought them.
2. Hu’s failure to get Hunan party chief Zhou Qiang and his former chief of staff Ling Jihua promoted to Politburo. Speculation on role of the Ling Gu scandal:
   1. New book 《中共高層內鬥驚聞》by 齊聲珅: “薄熙來事件本來大損太子黨，有利團派，但令計劃醜聞一出，幾乎斷送了整個團派，加上胡錦濤的不作為和能力有限，團派如今提前完蛋，可以說，團派亡于胡令，未來核心位子一般不會給團派了。”
   2. Apple Daily Zhang Hua: “令計劃九月被調離中辦，改任統戰部長，十八大無法晉身政治局；作為令背後的領導，胡錦濤豈能置身事外，江澤民等元老還不乘機發難，分掉原屬於胡的權力蛋糕？這應是十八大遲遲無法達成人事安排共識，以及胡錦濤被奪權的原因！”
3. Zhou Qiang vs. Little Hu?
   1. Boxun: 《大事件》雜志披露，胡春華能取代周強，成為胡錦濤屬意的接班人，主要原因應當就是年齡優勢。周強1960年出生。至中共20大第六代接班時，已經62歲，很可能幹不了二屆任期。而小三歲的胡春華屆時可以幹滿兩屆，這對於胡錦濤的權力佈局十分重要。
   2. 1963生，與習近平相差整十年，正好形成接班梯隊。為了讓其儘快積累資本和履歷，胡錦濤在提拔胡春華方面不遺餘力，而且超越常規，以致寧可得罪自己的另一個弟子周強。
4. Brookings on the political prospect of Zhou Qiang: “Zhou Qiang’s solid legal training and administrative background have positioned him very well at a time when the CCP leadership is concerned about the urgent need to promote judicial development, especially in the wake of the Bo Xilai crisis. He will likely take a top position in one of the major cities or provinces such as Chongqing or Sichuan. He may also serve as head of one of the Central Committee departments. He is known for his very strong advocacy, especially among Chinese provincial leaders, of the rule of law, environmental protection, the promotion of strategic emerging industries, and green consumption. He will likely make these developments his pet issues when he moves to the national leadership.”

Other appointments

1. Zhengfawei secretary: Meng Jianzhu (孟建柱) takes over from Zhou Yongkang.
   1. Analysts cited by SCMP: Effectively signaled downgrading of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission.
   2. Kerry Brown: “At the very least a very big rebuke to Zhou, who has truly been a disaster for 1.3 billion Chinese people”
2. Central Organization Department chief: Zhao Leji (赵乐际) takes over from Li Yuanchao.
   • Zhao: “我是从一名普通的知识青年成长为一名党的高级干部，青海烙印，深深打下；青海情节，刻骨铭心；深情眷恋，难以释怀。” Promoted to Shaanxi provincial party secretary from 2007.
   • SCMP: “Given Zhao’s relative youth and the sensitivity of his new post – a job usually given to one of the top leadership’s most trusted allies – he has emerged as one of the country’s fastest-rising stars”.
3. Central Publicity Department chief: Liu Qibao (刘奇葆) takes over from Liu Yunshan.
   1. Brookings: “It has been widely reported that Liu’s first principal patron was Wan Li, a heavyweight political leader who served as first party secretary of Anhui Province from 1977 to 1980, when Liu was a mishu in the general office of the Anhui Provincial Party Committee.”
   2. “He established his client relationship with Hu Jintao in the early 1980s, when Liu worked in the [Chinese Communist Youth League] leadership in Anhui Province and Hu was in charge of the CCYL Secretariat. Liu and Wang Yang worked closely together at the CCYL Committee in Anhui Province in the early 1980s, when Wang was Liu’s deputy.”
4. Chongqing party chief: Sun Zhengcai (孙政才) takes over from Zhang Dejiang.
   1. SCMP: “Sun is emblematic of younger officials of humbler backgrounds who stand apart from the refined, urban backgrounds of the likes of president-in-waiting Xi Jinping and other so-called “princelings” – the descendants of former senior revolutionary leaders.”
   2. During his time in as Jilin party secretary, the province joined “the trillionaire GDP club” last year: Economic output hit 1.04 trillion yuan (HK$1.3 trillion), a 14 percent rise on the previous year when average growth rate was 9.2 percent.
   3. SCMP: “In a political system where rosy economic indicators still count in evaluations of government officials’ performance, such top marks can only help Sun’s standing with the party elite.”
   4. During his tenure as agriculture minister, major test of crisis management ability came with contaminated milk scandal. Sun must protect interests of hard-hit dairy farmers: implemented policies to support farmers across 12 provinces.

Politburo

In their 60s:

Ma Kai (66): Previously led the NDRC

Sun Chunlan (62): Only woman party chief in Fujian  Tianjin party secretary

Li Jianguo (66): Vice chairman of Standing Committee of NPC

Fan Changlong (65), Xu Qiliang (62): Vice chairmen of Central Military Commission

Meng Jianzhu (65): Minister of public security

Li Zhanshu (62): Director of General Office of CPC Central Commitee

Guo Jinlong (65): Beijing party chief

In their 50s:

Wang Huning (57): Previously member of Central Committee’s secretariat

• As a trusted adviser and wordsmith (international politics professor at Fudan), “Wang has probably appeared in public more often than any other top official in recent years, although he rarely speaks and often goes unrecognised.”
• “Wang Huning played an important role in crafting Jiang’s “theory of the three represents” as well as Hu’s “scientific theory of development”, both of which have been written into the party’s constitution.”

Liu Qibao (59): Sichuan party chief  Publicity Department

• SCMP: “The surprise elevation of Liu Qibao , party secretary of Sichuan , to the Politburo is seen as a reward for his role in coordinating the recovery of the western province from a deadly earthquake on May 12, 2008.”
• “Liu also oversaw part of a draconian crackdown against dissidents who tried to link the large number of pupil deaths to substandard school buildings that collapsed in the quake, which killed nearly 70,000 people and left another 18,000 unaccounted for.”

Zhang Chunxian (59): Xinjiang party chief

Zhao Leji (55): Shaanxi party chief  Organization Department

Han Zheng (58): Shanghai mayor  Shanghai party secretary

In their 40s:

Hu Chunhua (49): Inner Mongolia party chief

Sun Zhengcai (49): Jilin party chief, previously minister of agriculture  Chongqing

Boxun: “有分析认为，胡锦涛可能已经选定胡春华为2022年中共20大时接替习近平的中共总书记隔代人选，而曾任农业部长的孙政才则有迹象将成为2022年时接替李克强的中国总理的隔代继承人。”

Central Committee

1. Election for Central Committee: margin increased minimally from 8.3 percent (204 elected from 221) in the 17^th Congress to 9.2 percent (205 elected from 224).
2. Central Committee secretariat: Headed by Liu Yunshan, expanded from 6 to 7 members
   1. Analysts cited by SCMP: Might reflect concern for ethnic unrest
      1. Naming of Du Qinglin: Former head of United Front Work department. Role highlighted due to identification of new targets, e.g. talent in private and foreign corporations, self-employed professionals such as famous authors.
      2. Naming of Yang Jing: head of State Ethnic Affairs Commission. Intensified research into and implementation of Central Committee’s ethnic minorities policies in wake of violent protests.

• Yang Jing named to back up Du to strengthen united front work.

Ming Pao opinion (許百堅):  A more confident China putting forth new theorizations. China’s own conceptualization of “the China Model”: 中国特色社会主义这个词，这次在后面加上制度二字，而且是第一次把这个制度写入党代表大会的报告中，意义就完全不同了。当中揭示了中共对这个新发明的自 信，反映中共自觉在中国特色社会主义这条道路上，不仅有探索、有实践、取得成功，到今天还有了理论支撑、形成制度，并且足以公之于世。

Taiwan-China relations

台灣媒體普遍關注的一個議是有「知台派」之稱的習近平上台後，對台灣意謂著什麼:

1. 經濟日報:習近平早年在福建擔任要職被視為知台派，兩岸關係習題對習近平來說應是駕輕就熟，亦可期待十八大後兩岸關係可穩步向前邁進。
2. 自由時報：在集體領導下＂屁股決定腦袋＂，中國併吞台灣手段軟硬兼具，基本圖謀不變，台灣對習近平不能有幻想，心須妥善因應準備。
3. 中國時報社論：「中共十八大閉幕，台灣真挑戰的開始」：
   1. 胡錦濤處理台灣問題核心思維是事緩則圜，水到渠成，只要大陸把經濟問題搞好，台灣問題自然解決。但隨著十八大換屆交班，兩岸關係若要良性發展，首先必須面對中美競合關係變化。
   2. 若中美兩國不能發揮和平相處共榮亞太的大智能，亞太局部衝突發火點恐將相繼引爆，屆時馬英九「親美、和陸、友日」的平衡策略，不無可能從美中左右逢源高招，淪入進退兩難困境。

US-China relations

1. Both US and China replacing their senior trade negotiators: Chen Deming did not make Central Committee, and will have to step down as minister at the NPC in March.
   1. NYT: “He has a reputation as a gentlemanly figure who chooses his words with care and has not indulged in outspoken denunciations of the West during trade disputes, even as the tone of social media in China has become increasingly nationalistic on economic policy.” Hence Chen’s failure to win support within “does not bode well for future trade relations, and shows that China is pushed by populism”.
   2. However, Chen has recently started trade actions against imports of main raw materials for solar panels, polysilicon, to retaliate against American tariffs and similar ones considered by Europe.
   3. Zhou Xiaochun, governor of China’s Central Bank, also retiring; and Wang Qishan will now focus on corruption investigations. On the US side, Hilary Clinton, Tim Geithner and Ron Kirk all expected to leave. Possible successors to Chen Deming: Gao Hucheng (Chen’s deputy at the Commerce Ministry) and Huang Xingguo (Tianjin mayor, may benefit from rise of Zhang Gaoli).
2. Pei Minxin: Top foreign policy priority for both China and US leaders is to “reset the tenor of Sino-American relations”.